Autran Financial Analysis

This section is included to show that the Autran system is not like the heavily subsidized transit systems or the high speed rail and other proposed systems that will require large expenditures of federal, state and other public money. Any governmental action that may be needed will only be for approval of construction or for authorization of use of rights-of-way, will be in the public interest and will deserve public support. Financial analyses show that:

The Autran system is viable without taxpayer support; the net income obtained from fares, after deducting operating expenses, will be more than sufficient to pay for capital costs.
The Autran system is viable even when constructed on a relatively small scale and for a single purpose, either for carrying autos alone or passengers alone.
Using the same main guideways for carrying both autos and passengers will produce a substantial increase in the ratio of net income to capital costs.
Expansions of the system can produce large increases in the ratio of net income to capital costs.

Detailed financial analyses of four possible systems are summarized as follows:

A ten mile auto-only system charges a fare of $3.00 for an average 8 mile trip, carries 15.14 M (million) autos per year and produces a net income equal to 12.38% of capital costs of $87.58 M.
A ten mile passenger-only system charges a fare of $1.90 for an average 8 mile trip, carries 26.28 M passengers per year and produces a net income equal to 10.72% of capital costs of $90.90 M.
Ten mile systems (1) and (2) are combined to carry both autos and passengers on the same guideways. A net income is produced equal to 16.67% of capital costs of $132.49 M.
A one hundred mile system charges, for trips at 100 MPH through an average forty mile distance, fares of $6.5 for passengers and $12.26 for autos. It carries 70.08 M passengers and 50.46 M autos per year, generating a net income equal to 40.29% of capital costs of $1,064.33 M.
Details of these four systems are as follows:

1. Ten Mile-Auto Only System:

This system has elevated guideways constructed along an existing right-of-way and in a congested region in which traffic moves at 25 MPH on average. It has ramps leading to two loading and two unloading stations in each direction with an average of 12 lanes per station. For the average fare of $3.00 it carries autos through an average distance of 8 miles and at a top speed of 85 MPH. An average trip time, including times for loading, acceleration, braking and unloading is less than 7 minutes, compared to the 19.2 minutes that are required to drive 8 miles through traffic at an average speed of 25 MPH. A driver may thereby save over 12 minutes in time.

The driver avoids the strain of driving. The driver and any other occupants of the auto avoid the risks of death, injury, property damage and liability that are faced when driving on roadways. In addition, the driver obtains monetary benefits that exceed the $3.00 fare. The driver saves $2.00 if his or her time is valued at only $10 per hour and saves another $1.60 if fuel and other operating costs are assumed to be only 20 cents/mile, far less than reportedly incurred by rental car companies.

Capital costs estimated at $87.58 million include the following:

$57.01 M for 26.94 miles of main and branch line guideways at $2.12 million per mile.
$14.40 M for 96 loading and unloading lanes.
$9.89 M for 792 carrier vehicles at $12,500 each.
$1.98 M for 792 platforms at $2,500 each.
$0.80 M for 8 ramps.
$1.00 M for 2 turn-arounds.
$1.50 M for a servicing station.
$1.00 M for an office and office equipment.

Operating expenses estimated at $34.57 M include the following:

$11.1 M for 89 monitoring, maintenance and accounting employees at an average of $100,000.
$0.30 M for 2 supervisors.
$1.27 M for vehicle, platform & loading equipment parts.
$2.03 M for track & guideway parts.
$13.19 M for electricity.
$2.92 M for insurance and misc.expenses.

Annual revenue of $45.41 M is obtained if an average of 36 drivers enter each loading lane per hour. (The peak capacity of a loading lane is 180 per hour or more.) After expenses, the net income is $10.84 M which is 12.38% of capital costs of $87.58 M.

2. Ten Mile Passenger-Only System.

Elevated guideways are constructed along urban streets where buses normally come only during certain hours and then many minutes apart to move slowly through congested traffic. There are twenty loading stations in each direction, with an unloading station opposite each loading station for exit from cabins going in the opposite direction.

A cabin is available for immediate entry at each loading station at any time of the day or night. It will depart when fully loaded with eight passengers or one minute after first being entered, whichever is earlier. The cabin then moves at a maximum speed of 60 MPH stopping only a stations selected by passengers. On average each entering passenger encounters two stops or less along the way.

Each station has a maximum capacity of at least 980 passengers per hour. However, it is estimated that an average of only 150 passengers per hour will enter each of the 20 loading stations. With a fare of $1.90, the annual revenue is $49.93 M.

Capital costs estimated at $90.90 M include the following:

$57.84 M for 25.3 miles of main and branch line guideways at $2.12 M per mile.
$12.00 M for 20 pairs of passenger stations at $0.60 M each.
$10.98 M for 878 carrier vehicles at $12,500 each.
$6.59 M for 878 cabins at $7,500 each.
$1.00 M million for 2 turn-arounds.
$1.50 M for a servicing station.
$1.00 M for an office and office equipment.

Operating expenses estimated at $40.19 M include the following:

$22.60 M for 226 monitoring, maintenance and accounting employees at an average of $100,000.
$0.30 M for two supervisors.
$4.30 M for cleaning of cabins and stations.
$3.51 M for vehicle and cabin parts.
$0.62 M for track & guideway parts.
$2.46 M for electricity.
$3.50 M for insurance and misc. expenses.

Annual revenue of $49.93 M is obtained from 26.28 M passengers per year paying a fare that averages or is fixed at $1.90. With expenses of $40.19 M, the net income is $9.74 M which is 10.72% of capital costs of $90.90 M.

3. Ten Mile Auto and Passenger System.

Auto loading and unloading stations of configuration (1) are added to the passenger stations of configuration (2) and use the same main guideways. This is quite possible because of a very large carrying capacity of the guideways. In this system the carrier vehicles move at a maximum speed of 60 MPH, less than the 85 MPH maximum speed of configuration (1). However, the auto fare is reduced from $3.00 to $2.60 so that it should still be very attractive to drivers of automobiles in an urban region. The resulting system has capital costs of $132.49 million and produces net income of $22.09 million equal to 16.67% of capital costs of $132.49 M.

4. One Hundred Mile Auto and Passenger System.

The system of configuration (3) is expanded to be 100 miles in length and to move autos and passenger cabins at a top speed of 100 MPH. It has eighty pairs of loading/unloading stations for passengers with an average of 100 passengers per hour entering each loading station to carry 70.08 M passengers per year through an average distance of 40 miles and for an average fare of $6.50.

This system also has forty auto loading stations and forty auto unloading stations having an average of twelve lanes each. An average of 0.1875 autos per minute/lane is assumed with a yearly total of 47.30 M autos per year being carried through an average distance of 40 miles and for an average fare of $12.26.

The revenue from passengers is $455.52 M and the revenue from autos is $579.95 M for a total of $1035.47 M. After deducting expenses of $606.67 M, the net income is $428.80, equal to 40.29% of capital costs.

Notes:

No deductions are listed that are labeled "depreciation". However, deduction entries of substantial size are made for replacements of vehicle, cabin, platform parts and track and track supports. In addition, the analyses assume that large numbers of employees will be employed for maintenance purposes. In system (4), it is assumed that 1388 of a total of 1932 employees are engaged in maintenance of vehicles, cabins, platforms, loading equipment, tracks and guideways. Actual depreciation in asset values, if any, should be quite low.
The analyses of systems (1) and (2) show that a system can be viable even when constructed on a small scale and for a single purpose, either for carrying autos alone or passengers alone.
The analysis of system (3) shows the monetary advantage obtained when the same main guideways are used for both carrying autos and carrying passengers. It is noted that adding the auto carrying capability to the passenger carrying system produces an additional net income of $12.35 M, nearly 30% of the additional required capital cost.
The analysis of system (4) shows the considerable monetary advantages to be obtained from expansions of the system that increase the average distances through which passengers and autos are carried.
Freight stations can be added whenever it is profitable to do so, most certainly when the system is expanded to allow automatic transport of containers between any two of a large number of locations in a metropolitan region or state. When expanded into a nationwide network, a very large freight use can be expected.
Platforms and loading equipment of the system are usable with few modifications for automated parking of autos at passenger stations of the system.
The top speed of carrier vehicles can be readily controlled. It can be varied along the length of the system and can be changed according to the time of day or in response to weather conditions. It may be reduced to reduce energy expense. Reducing the top speed from 100 MPH to 85 MPH in system (4) would reduce the energy expense for autos by nearly 30% but the system should still be highly attractive to most users.
The numbers of drivers and passengers using the analyzed systems are quite low in relation to the capacity of the guideways and may be substantially greater than estimated. Consider the following:
- The average number of loads per lane per hour was estimated at 36 in the analyses of systems (1) and (3) and at only 12 in the analysis of system (4), both being much less that a maximum which was conservatively estimated at 90/lane/hr. and which might be 180/lane/hr. or even more. If the demand exists, the average number of loads might easily be much greater.
- The average number of passengers/station/hour was estimated at 150 in the analyses of systems (2) and (3) and at 100 in the analysis of system (4). These are about 15% and 10% of an estimate of a capacity of 960 per hour that is based upon loading of four eight-passenger cabins at the same time in each loading station. If the demand exists, it would be easy to allow the the average rates to increase to a greater percentage of capacity and/or to increase capacity by loading more than four cabins at the same time.